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FIFA World Cup · League matchday

Mexico vs Ecuador

Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 01:00

Venue: ,

Weather/stadium note: Not available

Referee: TBC

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Mexico

69%

68%

Draw

25%

74%

Ecuador

6%

92%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Mexico at 69% confidence.

AI explanation: Mexico to win: Mexico averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.0 conceded recently (home boost applied); Ecuador averages 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

MexicoRecent form (last 3/3)Ecuador
3-0-0Record (W-D-L)1-1-1
2Goals scored / match0.7
0Goals conceded / match0.7
1.3Corners for / match5.7
2.7Corners against / match1.7
11.7Shots / match15.3
4.3Shots on target / match6.3
11.3Fouls committed / match11.7
0.7Yellow cards / match1.7
3Clean sheets1
0%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

Mexico (home)Recent form (last 2/1)Ecuador (away)
2-0-0Record (W-D-L)0-0-1
1.5Goals scored / match0
0Goals conceded / match1
1.5Corners for / match5
1.5Corners against / match3
12Shots / match12
4Shots on target / match1
10.5Fouls committed / match13
0.5Yellow cards / match1
2Clean sheets0
0%BTTS rate0%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • No standout player data available.

Injuries / Suspensions

  • No reported injuries or suspensions for either squad.

Referee Tendency

Referee not yet confirmed for this fixture.

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsLow risk
Over 2 524%
75%
Bookmaker odds: 2.70

Combined expected goals of 1.71 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsLow risk
Under 2 576%
75%
Bookmaker odds: 1.45+6.6% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 1.71.

bttsLow risk
Yes17%
82%
Bookmaker odds: 2.15

Mexico scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Ecuador in 22%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 5.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 5.7, just below the 5.5 line.

team_cornersMedium risk
Mexico Over 1.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

Mexico wins 1.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 1.7.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 26.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

Mexico (11.7/match) and Ecuador (15.3/match) combine for a projected 27.0 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 10.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 10.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 22.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 23.0 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 1.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 2.4 yellow cards.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes18%
81%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

Bookmaker odds shown above are sourced from 10Bet.