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Copa Sudamericana · Knockout round

Independiente vs Liga de Quito

Kickoff: Mon 29 Jun, 19:00

Venue: Independiente Stadium, Copa Sudamericana

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Michael Oliver (England)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Independiente

26%

73%

Draw

23%

76%

Liga de Quito

50%

50%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Liga de Quito at 50% confidence.

AI explanation: Liga de Quito to win: Independiente averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded recently (home boost applied); Liga de Quito averages 2.2 scored and 0.7 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

IndependienteRecent form (last 8/6)Liga de Quito
3-2-3Record (W-D-L)4-2-0
1.5Goals scored / match2.3
1.6Goals conceded / match0.8
7.6Corners for / match7.3
5.6Corners against / match5.2
13.4Shots / match13.5
6.1Shots on target / match5.5
10.8Fouls committed / match10.5
2.6Yellow cards / match2.2
3Clean sheets2
50%BTTS rate70%

Home / Away Form Split

Independiente (home)Recent form (last 7/2)Liga de Quito (away)
4-1-2Record (W-D-L)1-1-0
1.7Goals scored / match2
1.4Goals conceded / match0.5
6.7Corners for / match7
6.6Corners against / match4.5
13.3Shots / match16
5.3Shots on target / match5.5
11.7Fouls committed / match11.5
2.6Yellow cards / match1.5
2Clean sheets1
60%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Independiente wins

0

Draws

0

Liga de Quito wins

1

Avg total goals

6

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • S. Hassan (FW, Independiente)
  • K. Owusu (FW, Independiente)
  • M. Park (FW, Independiente)
  • K. Fernandez (MF, Independiente)
  • B. Tanaka (MF, Independiente)
  • K. Dubois (MF, Liga de)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • Y. LopezMuscle fatigue
  • A. MullerHamstring strain
  • A. LopezSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

97

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.2

Avg fouls/match

22.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 560%
60%
Bookmaker odds: 1.69+1.0% edge

Combined expected goals of 3.13 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 540%
60%
Bookmaker odds: 2.07

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.13.

bttsMedium risk
Yes61%
60%
Bookmaker odds: 1.58

Independiente scores in 72% of comparable matchups and Liga de Quito in 84%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.547%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.8, just below the 12.5 line.

team_cornersMedium risk
Independiente Over 5.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Independiente wins 7.6 corners per match on average against teams conceding 5.2.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 26.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Independiente (13.4/match) and Liga de Quito (13.5/match) combine for a projected 26.9 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 11.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 11.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 20.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 21.3 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
S. Hassan Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

S. Hassan averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
K. Dubois Over 1.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Dubois averages 2.1 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
S. Hassan Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

S. Hassan commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
K. Dubois Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Dubois commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
S. Hassan booked39%
60%
Bookmaker odds: —

S. Hassan has been booked in 50% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
K. Dubois booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Dubois has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, OddsHub, PunterPro) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.