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Copa Sudamericana · Knockout round

Atletico Mineiro vs Racing Club

Kickoff: Tue 7 Jul, 17:00

Venue: Atletico Mineiro Stadium, Copa Sudamericana

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Istvan Kovacs (Romania)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Atletico Mineiro

36%

63%

Draw

24%

75%

Racing Club

39%

60%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Racing Club at 39% confidence.

AI explanation: Racing Club to win: Atletico Mineiro averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded recently (home boost applied); Racing Club averages 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Atletico MineiroRecent form (last 8/8)Racing Club
1-2-5Record (W-D-L)3-3-2
0.9Goals scored / match1.3
1.9Goals conceded / match1.5
6.3Corners for / match7.1
6.5Corners against / match6
12.1Shots / match10.8
5Shots on target / match4.6
12.8Fouls committed / match11.3
3.4Yellow cards / match3.6
1Clean sheets2
60%BTTS rate60%

Home / Away Form Split

Atletico Mineiro (home)Recent form (last 6/6)Racing Club (away)
1-1-4Record (W-D-L)2-2-2
1.2Goals scored / match1
1.8Goals conceded / match1.7
7.2Corners for / match6.7
5.2Corners against / match5.3
14.2Shots / match12.7
4.7Shots on target / match5.2
13.7Fouls committed / match12
3.2Yellow cards / match3
0Clean sheets1
80%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Atletico Mineiro wins

0

Draws

0

Racing Club wins

1

Avg total goals

3

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • O. Silva (FW, Racing Club)
  • K. Hassan (FW, Racing Club)
  • L. Lopez (FW, Racing Club)
  • M. Hassan (FW, Atletico Mineiro)
  • M. Nakamura (MF, Atletico Mineiro)
  • D. Suzuki (MF, Atletico Mineiro)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. FernandezHamstring strain
  • O. OwusuMuscle fatigue
  • C. SilvaHamstring strain
  • F. TanakaHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

87

Avg yellow cards

3.3

Avg red cards

0.17

Avg fouls/match

22.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 557%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 1.98+6.3% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.97 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 543%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 1.99

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.97.

bttsMedium risk
Yes60%
59%
Bookmaker odds: 1.46

Atletico Mineiro scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Racing Club in 78%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.549%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.9, just below the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Atletico Mineiro Over 5.553%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Atletico Mineiro wins 6.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.0.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 22.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Atletico Mineiro (12.1/match) and Racing Club (10.8/match) combine for a projected 22.9 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 9.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 9.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 23.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 24.1 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 6.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.6 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Hassan Over 1.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Hassan averages 2.3 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
O. Silva Over 2.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Silva averages 3.0 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
M. Hassan Over 0.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Hassan commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
O. Silva Over 1.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Silva commits 2.2 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
M. Hassan booked63%
63%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Hassan has been booked in 100% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskHigh risk
O. Silva booked44%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Silva has been booked in 57% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.