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Copa Libertadores · Knockout round

Palmeiras vs Olimpia

Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 15:00

Venue: Palmeiras Stadium, Copa Libertadores

Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid

Referee: Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Palmeiras

52%

52%

Draw

27%

73%

Olimpia

21%

78%
High riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Palmeiras at 52% confidence.

AI explanation: Palmeiras to win: Palmeiras averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded recently (home boost applied); Olimpia averages 0.5 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

PalmeirasRecent form (last 8/7)Olimpia
3-4-1Record (W-D-L)2-0-5
1.4Goals scored / match0.6
1Goals conceded / match1.3
5.1Corners for / match6
6.8Corners against / match7.3
13.4Shots / match11.1
4.9Shots on target / match3
13.1Fouls committed / match11.3
3.4Yellow cards / match3
2Clean sheets2
60%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

Palmeiras (home)Recent form (last 7/5)Olimpia (away)
3-2-2Record (W-D-L)1-0-4
1.7Goals scored / match0.4
1.1Goals conceded / match1.4
6.4Corners for / match4.8
7.3Corners against / match7
10.7Shots / match11.8
5.3Shots on target / match3
14.4Fouls committed / match12
3.4Yellow cards / match2.8
2Clean sheets1
60%BTTS rate20%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

2

Palmeiras wins

1

Draws

0

Olimpia wins

1

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

50%

Key Player Impact

  • L. Rossi (MF, Palmeiras)
  • K. Costa (FW, Palmeiras)
  • H. Hassan (MF, Olimpia)
  • M. Park (FW, Olimpia)
  • S. Muller (FW, Palmeiras)
  • M. Silva (FW, Palmeiras)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • D. GarciaMuscle fatigue
  • T. JohnsonHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

168

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.19

Avg fouls/match

22.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: 2.27

Combined expected goals of 2.31 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: 1.64

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.31.

bttsHigh risk
Yes46%
54%
Bookmaker odds: 2.00

Palmeiras scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Olimpia in 57%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 12.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.6, just below the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Palmeiras Over 5.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Palmeiras wins 5.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.3.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 24.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

Palmeiras (13.4/match) and Olimpia (11.1/match) combine for a projected 24.5 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 7.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 7.9 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsMedium risk
Over 23.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 24.4 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 7.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 8.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsMedium risk
L. Rossi Over 2.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi averages 2.5 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_shotsMedium risk
H. Hassan Over 0.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan averages 0.6 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
L. Rossi Over 0.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
H. Hassan Over 0.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskHigh risk
L. Rossi booked49%
51%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi has been booked in 67% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
H. Hassan booked22%
77%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.