Copa Libertadores · Knockout round
Palmeiras vs Olimpia
Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 15:00
Venue: Palmeiras Stadium, Copa Libertadores
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Palmeiras
52%
Draw
27%
Olimpia
21%
AI explanation: Palmeiras to win: Palmeiras averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded recently (home boost applied); Olimpia averages 0.5 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Palmeiras wins
1
Draws
0
Olimpia wins
1
Avg total goals
2
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- L. Rossi (MF, Palmeiras)
- K. Costa (FW, Palmeiras)
- H. Hassan (MF, Olimpia)
- M. Park (FW, Olimpia)
- S. Muller (FW, Palmeiras)
- M. Silva (FW, Palmeiras)
Injuries / Suspensions
- D. GarciaMuscle fatigue
- T. JohnsonHamstring strain
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
168
Avg yellow cards
4.4
Avg red cards
0.19
Avg fouls/match
22.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.31 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.31.
Palmeiras scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Olimpia in 57%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.6, just below the 12.5 line.
Palmeiras wins 5.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.3.
Palmeiras (13.4/match) and Olimpia (11.1/match) combine for a projected 24.5 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 7.9 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 24.4 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 8.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
L. Rossi averages 2.5 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
H. Hassan averages 0.6 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.
L. Rossi commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.
H. Hassan commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.
L. Rossi has been booked in 67% of recent appearances.
H. Hassan has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.