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Copa Libertadores · Knockout round

Boca Juniors vs Olimpia

Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 20:00

Venue: Boca Juniors Stadium, Copa Libertadores

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Daniele Orsato (Italy)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Boca Juniors

57%

57%

Draw

25%

74%

Olimpia

18%

81%
High riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Boca Juniors at 57% confidence.

AI explanation: Boca Juniors to win: Boca Juniors averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded recently (home boost applied); Olimpia averages 0.5 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Boca JuniorsRecent form (last 8/7)Olimpia
5-2-1Record (W-D-L)2-0-5
1.8Goals scored / match0.6
1Goals conceded / match1.3
6.5Corners for / match6
6.4Corners against / match7.3
9.5Shots / match11.1
3.9Shots on target / match3
11.8Fouls committed / match11.3
2.1Yellow cards / match3
2Clean sheets2
80%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

Boca Juniors (home)Recent form (last 7/5)Olimpia (away)
2-4-1Record (W-D-L)1-0-4
1.1Goals scored / match0.4
1Goals conceded / match1.4
6.1Corners for / match4.8
7Corners against / match7
10.3Shots / match11.8
4.1Shots on target / match3
12Fouls committed / match12
1.4Yellow cards / match2.8
2Clean sheets1
70%BTTS rate20%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Boca Juniors wins

1

Draws

0

Olimpia wins

0

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • F. Park (MF, Boca Juniors)
  • K. Suzuki (FW, Boca Juniors)
  • P. Nakamura (FW, Boca Juniors)
  • C. Diallo (FW, Boca Juniors)
  • H. Hassan (MF, Olimpia)
  • M. Park (FW, Olimpia)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • O. DialloSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • C. ParkMuscle fatigue
  • K. JohnsonSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • T. JohnsonHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

90

Avg yellow cards

4.3

Avg red cards

0.14

Avg fouls/match

21.1

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 541%
58%
Bookmaker odds: 2.66+3.7% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.34 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 559%
58%
Bookmaker odds: 1.66

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.34.

bttsHigh risk
Yes42%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 2.75+5.9% edge

Boca Juniors scores in 79% of comparable matchups and Olimpia in 53%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.1, just above the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Boca Juniors Over 6.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Boca Juniors wins 6.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.3.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 20.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Boca Juniors (9.5/match) and Olimpia (11.1/match) combine for a projected 20.6 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 6.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 6.9 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 22.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 23.1 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.556%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 6.3 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
F. Park Over 0.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

F. Park averages 1.3 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsMedium risk
H. Hassan Over 0.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan averages 0.6 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
F. Park Over 1.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

F. Park commits 2.1 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
H. Hassan Over 0.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
F. Park booked28%
71%
Bookmaker odds:

F. Park has been booked in 33% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
H. Hassan booked22%
77%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Hassan has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.