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Copa Libertadores · Knockout round

River Plate vs Palmeiras

Kickoff: Sun 28 Jun, 12:00

Venue: River Plate Stadium, Copa Libertadores

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Wilton Sampaio (Brazil)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

River Plate

50%

50%

Draw

25%

74%

Palmeiras

25%

74%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: River Plate at 50% confidence.

AI explanation: River Plate to win: River Plate averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded recently (home boost applied); Palmeiras averages 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

River PlateRecent form (last 8/4)Palmeiras
5-1-2Record (W-D-L)2-2-0
2.1Goals scored / match1.5
0.9Goals conceded / match0.5
7.6Corners for / match0
6.8Corners against / match0
13.8Shots / match0
4.5Shots on target / match0
12.8Fouls committed / match0
2.3Yellow cards / match0
2Clean sheets2
60%BTTS rate50%

Home / Away Form Split

River Plate (home)Recent form (last 8/2)Palmeiras (away)
4-2-2Record (W-D-L)1-1-0
1.8Goals scored / match2
0.8Goals conceded / match0.5
7.5Corners for / match0
6.4Corners against / match0
15.3Shots / match0
4.3Shots on target / match0
12.1Fouls committed / match0
2.5Yellow cards / match0
3Clean sheets1
50%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

River Plate wins

0

Draws

1

Palmeiras wins

0

Avg total goals

0

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • P. Owusu (FW, River Plate)
  • T. Lopez (MF, River Plate)
  • L. Rossi (MF, Palmeiras)
  • K. Costa (FW, Palmeiras)
  • K. Garcia (FW, River Plate)
  • K. Lopez (MF, River Plate)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • B. SilvaMuscle fatigue
  • D. GarciaMuscle fatigue

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

96

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.08

Avg fouls/match

24.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: 2.35+7.7% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.69 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: 2.08+1.7% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.69.

bttsHigh risk
Yes53%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 1.96+1.7% edge

River Plate scores in 80% of comparable matchups and Palmeiras in 66%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.553%
53%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.2, just above the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
River Plate Over 6.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

River Plate wins 7.6 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.8.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 26.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

River Plate (13.8/match) and Palmeiras (13.4/match) combine for a projected 27.2 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 8.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 9.4 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 25.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 25.9 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 6.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 7.2 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
P. Owusu Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Owusu averages 1.7 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_shotsMedium risk
L. Rossi Over 2.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi averages 2.5 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
P. Owusu Over 0.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Owusu commits 1.4 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
L. Rossi Over 0.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
P. Owusu booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Owusu has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskHigh risk
L. Rossi booked49%
51%
Bookmaker odds:

L. Rossi has been booked in 67% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, BetEdge, PunterPro) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.