Colombia vs Paraguay

Combined expected goals of 3.16 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.16.

Colombia scores in 82% of comparable matchups and Paraguay in 76%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.1, just above the 12.5 line.

Colombia wins 6.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.0.

Colombia (10.8/match) and Paraguay (11.4/match) combine for a projected 22.2 shots.

Projected combined shots on target of 10.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

Combined foul rate of 26.8 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

Team card rates project 7.5 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.6 cards/match.

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

M. Hassan averages 1.2 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

T. Johnson averages 1.7 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.

M. Hassan commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

T. Johnson commits 1.1 fouls per match on average.

M. Hassan has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

T. Johnson has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.