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Copa America · Group stage

Argentina vs Uruguay

Kickoff: Tue 7 Jul, 15:00

Venue: Argentina Stadium, Argentina

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Ko Hyung-jin (South Korea)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Argentina

36%

64%

Draw

25%

74%

Uruguay

39%

60%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Uruguay at 39% confidence.

AI explanation: Uruguay to win: Argentina averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded recently (home boost applied); Uruguay averages 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

ArgentinaRecent form (last 8/8)Uruguay
3-3-2Record (W-D-L)4-2-2
1.1Goals scored / match1.8
0.9Goals conceded / match1.3
7.9Corners for / match6.3
6.1Corners against / match4.9
10.6Shots / match11.6
5.6Shots on target / match3.6
11.6Fouls committed / match11.8
2.1Yellow cards / match2.6
3Clean sheets3
50%BTTS rate60%

Home / Away Form Split

Argentina (home)Recent form (last 8/5)Uruguay (away)
3-2-3Record (W-D-L)4-0-1
0.9Goals scored / match2.4
1Goals conceded / match1.4
7.6Corners for / match4.6
6.4Corners against / match5
11Shots / match11.8
5.1Shots on target / match4.2
11.4Fouls committed / match12.4
2Yellow cards / match2.4
4Clean sheets2
40%BTTS rate60%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

2

Argentina wins

0

Draws

1

Uruguay wins

1

Avg total goals

3

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • H. Costa (FW, Argentina)
  • K. Costa (FW, Argentina)
  • M. Hassan (FW, Uruguay)
  • C. Haidara (MF, Argentina)
  • K. Almeida (MF, Argentina)
  • K. Nakamura (MF, Uruguay)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • D. FernandezKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • S. CostaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • M. LopezSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

112

Avg yellow cards

4.8

Avg red cards

0.19

Avg fouls/match

20.8

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 555%
55%
Bookmaker odds: 1.91+2.9% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.90 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 545%
55%
Bookmaker odds: 2.08

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.90.

bttsMedium risk
Yes71%
70%
Bookmaker odds: 1.47+3.0% edge

Argentina scores in 76% of comparable matchups and Uruguay in 78%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 12.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.6, just below the 12.5 line.

team_cornersMedium risk
Argentina Over 5.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Argentina wins 7.9 corners per match on average against teams conceding 4.9.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 21.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Argentina (10.6/match) and Uruguay (11.6/match) combine for a projected 22.2 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 8.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 9.2 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsMedium risk
Over 22.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 23.4 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 5.560%
60%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 6.4 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.8 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
H. Costa Over 0.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Costa averages 1.2 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Hassan Over 2.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Hassan averages 3.0 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
H. Costa Over 1.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Costa commits 2.2 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
M. Hassan Over 1.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Hassan commits 2.2 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
H. Costa booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds:

H. Costa has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
M. Hassan booked25%
74%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Hassan has been booked in 29% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.