Gold Cup · Group stage
Canada vs Jamaica
Kickoff: Fri 3 Jul, 15:00
Venue: Canada Stadium, Gold Cup
Weather/stadium note: Windy, 12°C
Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Canada
31%
Draw
29%
Jamaica
40%
AI explanation: Jamaica to win: Canada averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded recently (home boost applied); Jamaica averages 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Canada wins
0
Draws
1
Jamaica wins
1
Avg total goals
1.5
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- H. Rossi (FW, Jamaica)
- F. Johnson (FW, Jamaica)
- T. Hassan (MF, Canada)
- M. Lopez (MF, Canada)
- M. Silva (FW, Canada)
- S. Tanaka (MF, Canada)
Injuries / Suspensions
- A. SuzukiKnee injury (assessment pending)
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
158
Avg yellow cards
3.2
Avg red cards
0.11
Avg fouls/match
19.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.16 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.16.
Canada scores in 63% of comparable matchups and Jamaica in 69%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.7, just below the 12.5 line.
Canada wins 6.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 4.5.
Canada (11.0/match) and Jamaica (12.9/match) combine for a projected 23.9 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 10.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 27.8 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 4.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.2 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
T. Hassan averages 3.0 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
H. Rossi averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
T. Hassan commits 0.8 fouls per match on average.
H. Rossi commits 1.1 fouls per match on average.
T. Hassan has been booked in 40% of recent appearances.
H. Rossi has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.