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Gold Cup · Group stage

United States vs Jamaica

Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 20:00

Venue: United States Stadium, United States

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Wilton Sampaio (Brazil)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

United States

36%

63%

Draw

26%

73%

Jamaica

38%

62%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Jamaica at 38% confidence.

AI explanation: Jamaica to win: United States averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded recently (home boost applied); Jamaica averages 1.2 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

United StatesRecent form (last 8/8)Jamaica
2-2-4Record (W-D-L)3-3-2
1.3Goals scored / match1.4
1.5Goals conceded / match0.9
7.1Corners for / match6.5
6.8Corners against / match4.5
11.3Shots / match12.9
5Shots on target / match5.1
12.3Fouls committed / match14.4
1.9Yellow cards / match2.9
2Clean sheets3
60%BTTS rate50%

Home / Away Form Split

United States (home)Recent form (last 8/4)Jamaica (away)
3-1-4Record (W-D-L)1-2-1
1.6Goals scored / match1
1.5Goals conceded / match1
7.5Corners for / match7.5
5.8Corners against / match5.8
10.8Shots / match13.3
5Shots on target / match4.5
11.8Fouls committed / match14.3
2.9Yellow cards / match3.8
1Clean sheets1
50%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

United States wins

0

Draws

0

Jamaica wins

1

Avg total goals

6

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • H. Rossi (FW, Jamaica)
  • Y. Rossi (FW, United States)
  • F. Johnson (FW, Jamaica)
  • C. Owusu (MF, United States)
  • S. Johnson (MF, United States)
  • M. Lopez (FW, United States)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. CostaHamstring strain
  • A. SuzukiKnee injury (assessment pending)

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

96

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.08

Avg fouls/match

24.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 1.78

Combined expected goals of 2.70 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 549%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 2.15+2.9% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.70.

bttsHigh risk
Yes55%
55%
Bookmaker odds: 1.75

United States scores in 74% of comparable matchups and Jamaica in 75%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 11.560%
60%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.4, just above the 11.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
United States Over 5.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

United States wins 7.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 4.5.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 23.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

United States (11.3/match) and Jamaica (12.9/match) combine for a projected 24.2 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 9.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.1 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 26.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 26.7 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
Y. Rossi Over 0.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Rossi averages 1.3 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
H. Rossi Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

H. Rossi averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
Y. Rossi Over 0.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Rossi commits 1.2 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
H. Rossi Over 0.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

H. Rossi commits 1.1 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
Y. Rossi booked15%
83%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Rossi has been booked in 17% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
H. Rossi booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

H. Rossi has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.