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J1 League · 🇯🇵 Japan · League matchday

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Cerezo Osaka

Kickoff: Fri 10 Jul, 19:00

Venue: Yokohama F. Marinos Stadium, Japan

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Daniele Orsato (Italy)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Yokohama F. Marinos

26%

73%

Draw

27%

73%

Cerezo Osaka

47%

53%
High riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Cerezo Osaka at 47% confidence.

AI explanation: Cerezo Osaka to win: Yokohama F. Marinos averages 0.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded recently (home boost applied); Cerezo Osaka averages 1.6 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Yokohama F. MarinosRecent form (last 6/8)Cerezo Osaka
0-2-4Record (W-D-L)3-4-1
0.2Goals scored / match1.6
1.7Goals conceded / match1.3
6.7Corners for / match6.1
6.3Corners against / match9
11.8Shots / match11.5
6Shots on target / match4.3
13.8Fouls committed / match12.1
1.8Yellow cards / match2.5
1Clean sheets2
20%BTTS rate60%

Home / Away Form Split

Yokohama F. Marinos (home)Recent form (last 2/6)Cerezo Osaka (away)
0-1-1Record (W-D-L)2-3-1
0.5Goals scored / match1.5
1.5Goals conceded / match1.3
6Corners for / match7
5.5Corners against / match8.7
10.5Shots / match11.2
6.5Shots on target / match4.8
13Fouls committed / match11.8
3Yellow cards / match2.8
0Clean sheets1
50%BTTS rate70%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

2

Yokohama F. Marinos wins

0

Draws

1

Cerezo Osaka wins

1

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

50%

Key Player Impact

  • Y. Almeida (FW, Cerezo Osaka)
  • K. Almeida (FW, Cerezo Osaka)
  • Y. Suzuki (FW, Yokohama F.)
  • S. Almeida (MF, Yokohama F.)
  • M. Costa (MF, Yokohama F.)
  • M. Lopez (FW, Yokohama F.)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • S. NakamuraMuscle fatigue
  • C. SilvaAnkle knock
  • Y. CostaKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • Y. RossiHamstring strain
  • M. OwusuSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

90

Avg yellow cards

4.3

Avg red cards

0.14

Avg fouls/match

21.1

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 544%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 2.14

Combined expected goals of 2.45 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 556%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 1.67

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.45.

bttsHigh risk
Yes49%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 2.24+4.3% edge

Yokohama F. Marinos scores in 63% of comparable matchups and Cerezo Osaka in 76%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 13.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.1, just above the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Yokohama F. Marinos Over 7.547%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Yokohama F. Marinos wins 6.7 corners per match on average against teams conceding 9.0.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 22.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Yokohama F. Marinos (11.8/match) and Cerezo Osaka (11.5/match) combine for a projected 23.3 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 9.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 25.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.9 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 4.556%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 5.3 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes9%
89%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsMedium risk
Y. Suzuki Over 3.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Suzuki averages 3.6 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
Y. Almeida Over 1.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida averages 2.3 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
Y. Suzuki Over 1.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Suzuki commits 1.5 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
Y. Almeida Over 1.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida commits 2.1 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskHigh risk
Y. Suzuki booked44%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Suzuki has been booked in 57% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
Y. Almeida booked74%
73%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida has been booked in 133% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.