Saudi Pro League · 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia · League matchday
Al Ahli vs Al Hilal
Kickoff: Sat 4 Jul, 19:00
Venue: Al Ahli Stadium, Saudi Arabia
Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C
Referee: Daniele Orsato (Italy)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Al Ahli
51%
Draw
26%
Al Hilal
22%
AI explanation: Al Ahli to win: Al Ahli averages 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded recently (home boost applied); Al Hilal averages 0.5 scored and 1.1 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Al Ahli wins
1
Draws
0
Al Hilal wins
1
Avg total goals
3.5
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- A. Lopez (FW, Al Hilal)
- P. Costa (FW, Al Hilal)
- L. Owusu (FW, Al Ahli)
- P. Kim (MF, Al Hilal)
- P. Tanaka (MF, Al Hilal)
- M. Johnson (FW, Al Ahli)
Injuries / Suspensions
- K. JohnsonSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- H. DuboisAnkle knock
- T. ParkSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
90
Avg yellow cards
4.3
Avg red cards
0.14
Avg fouls/match
21.1
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.34 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.34.
Al Ahli scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Al Hilal in 58%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.6, just below the 13.5 line.
Al Ahli wins 8.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.0.
Al Ahli (10.3/match) and Al Hilal (12.0/match) combine for a projected 22.3 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 9.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 24.3 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 6.8 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.3 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
L. Owusu averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
A. Lopez averages 2.0 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.
L. Owusu commits 1.4 fouls per match on average.
A. Lopez commits 2.0 fouls per match on average.
L. Owusu has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
A. Lopez has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.