Saudi Pro League · 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia · League matchday
Al Nassr vs Al Shabab
Kickoff: Fri 10 Jul, 17:00
Venue: Al Nassr Stadium, AFC Champions League
Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C
Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Al Nassr
40%
Draw
37%
Al Shabab
23%
AI explanation: Al Nassr to win: Al Nassr averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.3 conceded recently (home boost applied); Al Shabab averages 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Al Nassr wins
0
Draws
1
Al Shabab wins
1
Avg total goals
0.5
BTTS rate
0%
Key Player Impact
- F. Muller (FW, Al Nassr)
- L. Mensah (FW, Al Shabab)
- O. Dubois (MF, Al Nassr)
- Y. Fernandez (MF, Al Nassr)
- T. Dubois (FW, Al Nassr)
- K. Silva (FW, Al Shabab)
Injuries / Suspensions
- M. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- K. RossiMuscle fatigue
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
158
Avg yellow cards
3.2
Avg red cards
0.11
Avg fouls/match
19.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 1.43 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 1.43.
Al Nassr scores in 58% of comparable matchups and Al Shabab in 43%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.2, just above the 13.5 line.
Al Nassr wins 6.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.9.
Al Nassr (11.0/match) and Al Shabab (11.1/match) combine for a projected 22.1 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 10.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 24.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 5.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.2 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
F. Muller averages 2.6 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.
L. Mensah averages 2.2 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.
F. Muller commits 1.8 fouls per match on average.
L. Mensah commits 1.5 fouls per match on average.
F. Muller has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
L. Mensah has been booked in 50% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.