← Back to matches

Asian Cup · Group stage

Iran vs UAE

Kickoff: Thu 2 Jul, 17:00

Venue: Iran Stadium, Asian Cup

Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid

Referee: Daniele Orsato (Italy)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Iran

46%

53%

Draw

22%

77%

UAE

31%

68%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Iran at 46% confidence.

AI explanation: Iran to win: Iran averages 2.2 goals scored and 2.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); UAE averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

IranRecent form (last 5/7)UAE
2-0-3Record (W-D-L)2-2-3
2Goals scored / match1.1
2.2Goals conceded / match1.4
7Corners for / match7.9
6.8Corners against / match7.4
11.4Shots / match12.9
5Shots on target / match5.7
10.8Fouls committed / match15.1
3.2Yellow cards / match3.3
0Clean sheets1
60%BTTS rate40%

Home / Away Form Split

Iran (home)Recent form (last 2/4)UAE (away)
1-0-1Record (W-D-L)1-1-2
2.5Goals scored / match0.8
2Goals conceded / match1.3
9Corners for / match6.3
5Corners against / match6.8
13Shots / match13.8
5.5Shots on target / match5.5
10.5Fouls committed / match15.5
2Yellow cards / match3.8
0Clean sheets1
50%BTTS rate30%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • O. Park (FW, Iran)
  • A. Garcia (FW, Iran)
  • M. Tanaka (FW, UAE)
  • O. Diallo (MF, Iran)
  • Y. Suzuki (FW, UAE)
  • M. Silva (FW, Iran)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • O. AlmeidaMuscle fatigue
  • S. MullerMuscle fatigue
  • K. CostaMuscle fatigue
  • K. HaidaraHamstring strain
  • L. DialloHamstring strain
  • P. TanakaAnkle knock
  • Y. NakamuraSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • M. DialloMuscle fatigue
  • K. HassanSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

90

Avg yellow cards

4.3

Avg red cards

0.14

Avg fouls/match

21.1

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 567%
66%
Bookmaker odds: 1.43

Combined expected goals of 3.48 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 533%
66%
Bookmaker odds: 3.00

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.48.

bttsMedium risk
Yes67%
67%
Bookmaker odds: 1.39

Iran scores in 85% of comparable matchups and UAE in 79%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 14.540%
60%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.6, just below the 14.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Iran Over 6.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Iran wins 7.0 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.4.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 23.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Iran (11.4/match) and UAE (12.9/match) combine for a projected 24.3 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 10.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 25.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.9 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 7.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 8.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
O. Park Over 2.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Park averages 3.2 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Tanaka Over 2.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Tanaka averages 3.3 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
O. Park Over 0.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Park commits 1.2 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
M. Tanaka Over 0.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Tanaka commits 0.7 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
O. Park booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Park has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
M. Tanaka booked13%
85%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Tanaka has been booked in 14% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.