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Asian Cup · Group stage

Saudi Arabia vs UAE

Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 20:00

Venue: Saudi Arabia Stadium, Saudi Arabia

Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C

Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Saudi Arabia

55%

55%

Draw

23%

76%

UAE

22%

77%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Saudi Arabia at 55% confidence.

AI explanation: Saudi Arabia to win: Saudi Arabia averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); UAE averages 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Saudi ArabiaRecent form (last 2/7)UAE
0-1-1Record (W-D-L)2-2-3
0Goals scored / match1.1
2Goals conceded / match1.4
0Corners for / match7.9
0Corners against / match7.4
0Shots / match12.9
0Shots on target / match5.7
0Fouls committed / match15.1
0Yellow cards / match3.3
1Clean sheets1
0%BTTS rate40%

Home / Away Form Split

Saudi Arabia (home)Recent form (last 0/4)UAE (away)
0-0-0Record (W-D-L)1-1-2
0Goals scored / match0.8
0Goals conceded / match1.3
0Corners for / match6.3
0Corners against / match6.8
0Shots / match13.8
0Shots on target / match5.5
0Fouls committed / match15.5
0Yellow cards / match3.8
0Clean sheets1
0%BTTS rate30%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • M. Tanaka (FW, UAE)
  • C. Haidara (FW, Saudi Arabia)
  • K. Costa (FW, Saudi Arabia)
  • B. Rossi (FW, Saudi Arabia)
  • Y. Suzuki (FW, UAE)
  • Y. Owusu (MF, Saudi Arabia)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. HaidaraHamstring strain
  • L. DialloHamstring strain
  • P. TanakaAnkle knock
  • Y. NakamuraSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • M. DialloMuscle fatigue
  • K. HassanSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

158

Avg yellow cards

3.2

Avg red cards

0.11

Avg fouls/match

19.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 555%
54%
Bookmaker odds: 1.77

Combined expected goals of 2.88 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 545%
54%
Bookmaker odds: 1.94

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.88.

bttsHigh risk
Yes55%
55%
Bookmaker odds: 2.18+8.9% edge

Saudi Arabia scores in 84% of comparable matchups and UAE in 65%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 13.540%
60%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.6, just below the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Saudi Arabia Over 6.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Saudi Arabia wins 6.8 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.4.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 26.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Saudi Arabia (14.2/match) and UAE (12.9/match) combine for a projected 27.1 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 11.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 11.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsMedium risk
Over 26.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 26.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 4.542%
57%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 4.7 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.2 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
C. Haidara Over 2.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Haidara averages 3.2 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Tanaka Over 2.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Tanaka averages 3.3 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
C. Haidara Over 0.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Haidara commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
M. Tanaka Over 0.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Tanaka commits 0.7 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
C. Haidara booked63%
63%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Haidara has been booked in 100% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
M. Tanaka booked13%
85%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Tanaka has been booked in 14% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.