Asian Cup · Group stage
South Korea vs Iraq
Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 12:00
Venue: South Korea Stadium, South Korea
Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h
Referee: Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
South Korea
57%
Draw
23%
Iraq
20%
AI explanation: South Korea to win: South Korea averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded recently (home boost applied); Iraq averages 0.5 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.
Key Player Impact
- P. Fernandez (FW, South Korea)
- C. Lopez (FW, South Korea)
- K. Park (FW, Iraq)
- L. Fernandez (FW, Iraq)
- A. Muller (FW, South Korea)
- C. Silva (MF, Iraq)
Injuries / Suspensions
- K. CostaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- S. FernandezHamstring strain
- M. FernandezSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- A. AlmeidaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
168
Avg yellow cards
4.4
Avg red cards
0.19
Avg fouls/match
22.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.83 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.83.
South Korea scores in 84% of comparable matchups and Iraq in 62%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.5, just below the 14.5 line.
South Korea wins 7.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.7.
South Korea (12.4/match) and Iraq (13.5/match) combine for a projected 25.9 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 11.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 23.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 5.8 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
P. Fernandez averages 2.7 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.
K. Park averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.
P. Fernandez commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.
K. Park commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.
P. Fernandez has been booked in 17% of recent appearances.
K. Park has been booked in 13% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.