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Asian Cup · Group stage

South Korea vs Iraq

Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 12:00

Venue: South Korea Stadium, South Korea

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Mustapha Ghorbal (Algeria)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

South Korea

57%

57%

Draw

23%

76%

Iraq

20%

79%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: South Korea at 57% confidence.

AI explanation: South Korea to win: South Korea averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded recently (home boost applied); Iraq averages 0.5 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

South KoreaRecent form (last 1/2)Iraq
0-0-1Record (W-D-L)0-0-2
0Goals scored / match0
1Goals conceded / match4
0Corners for / match0
0Corners against / match0
0Shots / match0
0Shots on target / match0
0Fouls committed / match0
0Yellow cards / match0
0Clean sheets0
0%BTTS rate0%

Home / Away Form Split

South Korea (home)Recent form (last 0/2)Iraq (away)
0-0-0Record (W-D-L)0-0-2
0Goals scored / match0
0Goals conceded / match4
0Corners for / match0
0Corners against / match0
0Shots / match0
0Shots on target / match0
0Fouls committed / match0
0Yellow cards / match0
0Clean sheets0
0%BTTS rate0%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • P. Fernandez (FW, South Korea)
  • C. Lopez (FW, South Korea)
  • K. Park (FW, Iraq)
  • L. Fernandez (FW, Iraq)
  • A. Muller (FW, South Korea)
  • C. Silva (MF, Iraq)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. CostaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • S. FernandezHamstring strain
  • M. FernandezSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • A. AlmeidaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

168

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.19

Avg fouls/match

22.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 553%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 1.65

Combined expected goals of 2.83 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 547%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 2.66+8.9% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.83.

bttsHigh risk
Yes53%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 2.01+2.9% edge

South Korea scores in 84% of comparable matchups and Iraq in 62%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 14.540%
60%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.5, just below the 14.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
South Korea Over 7.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

South Korea wins 7.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.7.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 25.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

South Korea (12.4/match) and Iraq (13.5/match) combine for a projected 25.9 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 10.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 11.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 22.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 23.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.545%
55%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 5.8 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
P. Fernandez Over 2.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Fernandez averages 2.7 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
K. Park Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

K. Park averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
P. Fernandez Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Fernandez commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
K. Park Over 0.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

K. Park commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
P. Fernandez booked15%
83%
Bookmaker odds:

P. Fernandez has been booked in 17% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
K. Park booked12%
87%
Bookmaker odds:

K. Park has been booked in 13% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.