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Asian Cup · Group stage

Japan vs Iraq

Kickoff: Tue 30 Jun, 15:00

Venue: Japan Stadium, Japan

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Victor Gomes (South Africa)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Japan

58%

58%

Draw

24%

75%

Iraq

17%

82%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Japan at 58% confidence.

AI explanation: Japan to win: Japan averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded recently (home boost applied); Iraq averages 0.5 scored and 1.9 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

JapanRecent form (last 8/6)Iraq
2-3-3Record (W-D-L)3-0-3
1.1Goals scored / match0.8
1Goals conceded / match1.5
5.4Corners for / match5.3
8Corners against / match8.7
13.1Shots / match13.5
6.4Shots on target / match6
13.9Fouls committed / match10.3
3.3Yellow cards / match2.2
3Clean sheets2
40%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

Japan (home)Recent form (last 8/2)Iraq (away)
3-2-3Record (W-D-L)0-0-2
1.1Goals scored / match0
1.1Goals conceded / match2.5
7.1Corners for / match7
7.9Corners against / match12
11.8Shots / match14
4.9Shots on target / match6.5
12.5Fouls committed / match14.5
2.9Yellow cards / match0.5
4Clean sheets0
10%BTTS rate0%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Japan wins

1

Draws

0

Iraq wins

0

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • F. Almeida (FW, Japan)
  • K. Park (FW, Iraq)
  • L. Fernandez (FW, Iraq)
  • Y. Park (MF, Japan)
  • C. Silva (MF, Iraq)
  • D. Owusu (MF, Japan)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • O. HassanAnkle knock
  • O. FernandezMuscle fatigue
  • M. HassanHamstring strain
  • A. AlmeidaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

125

Avg yellow cards

4.1

Avg red cards

0.2

Avg fouls/match

23.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 543%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 2.28

Combined expected goals of 2.41 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 557%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 1.79+1.0% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.41.

bttsHigh risk
Yes43%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 2.00

Japan scores in 81% of comparable matchups and Iraq in 53%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 13.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.7, just below the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Japan Over 6.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Japan wins 5.4 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.7.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 26.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Japan (13.1/match) and Iraq (13.5/match) combine for a projected 26.6 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 11.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 12.4 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 23.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 24.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 5.560%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.4 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
F. Almeida Over 2.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Almeida averages 3.3 shots per match over the last 6 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
K. Park Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Park averages 1.0 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
F. Almeida Over 0.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Almeida commits 1.1 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
K. Park Over 0.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Park commits 0.5 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
F. Almeida booked69%
68%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Almeida has been booked in 67% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
K. Park booked12%
87%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Park has been booked in 13% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.