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AFC Champions League · Knockout round

Al Ittihad vs Al Nassr

Kickoff: Fri 3 Jul, 20:00

Venue: Al Ittihad Stadium, AFC Champions League

Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C

Referee: Walter Lopez (Guatemala)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Al Ittihad

38%

61%

Draw

28%

71%

Al Nassr

34%

66%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Al Ittihad at 38% confidence.

AI explanation: Al Ittihad to win: Al Ittihad averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded recently (home boost applied); Al Nassr averages 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Al IttihadRecent form (last 8/8)Al Nassr
5-1-2Record (W-D-L)5-3-0
1.3Goals scored / match1.3
0.8Goals conceded / match0.5
6.1Corners for / match6.1
7.3Corners against / match6.6
10.3Shots / match11
4.8Shots on target / match5.3
11.9Fouls committed / match12.3
1.3Yellow cards / match1.9
4Clean sheets5
40%BTTS rate40%

Home / Away Form Split

Al Ittihad (home)Recent form (last 8/5)Al Nassr (away)
5-0-3Record (W-D-L)3-1-1
1.5Goals scored / match1.4
1Goals conceded / match1
4.5Corners for / match5.2
7.9Corners against / match5.8
9.1Shots / match10
5.3Shots on target / match4.8
13.1Fouls committed / match11.4
1.8Yellow cards / match1.6
3Clean sheets1
40%BTTS rate60%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

2

Al Ittihad wins

0

Draws

1

Al Nassr wins

1

Avg total goals

2.5

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • F. Muller (FW, Al Nassr)
  • O. Dubois (MF, Al Nassr)
  • Y. Fernandez (MF, Al Nassr)
  • T. Dubois (FW, Al Nassr)
  • F. Kim (MF, Al Ittihad)
  • A. Suzuki (FW, Al Ittihad)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • K. RossiMuscle fatigue
  • F. CostaAnkle knock

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

117

Avg yellow cards

4.1

Avg red cards

0.12

Avg fouls/match

21.3

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 543%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 2.25

Combined expected goals of 2.39 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 557%
57%
Bookmaker odds: 1.78+1.2% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.39.

bttsMedium risk
Yes64%
63%
Bookmaker odds: 1.46

Al Ittihad scores in 71% of comparable matchups and Al Nassr in 68%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.1, just above the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Al Ittihad Over 5.558%
57%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Ittihad wins 6.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.6.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 20.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Ittihad (10.3/match) and Al Nassr (11.0/match) combine for a projected 21.3 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 9.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.1 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 23.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 24.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 3.544%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 3.7 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
F. Kim Over 2.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Kim averages 3.1 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.

player_shotsMedium risk
F. Muller Over 2.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller averages 2.6 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsMedium risk
F. Kim Over 0.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Kim commits 1.4 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
F. Muller Over 1.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller commits 1.8 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
F. Kim booked63%
63%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Kim has been booked in 100% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
F. Muller booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, OddsHub, PunterPro) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.