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AFC Champions League · Knockout round

Al Nassr vs Vissel Kobe

Kickoff: Fri 3 Jul, 15:00

Venue: Al Nassr Stadium, AFC Champions League

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Michael Oliver (England)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Al Nassr

39%

60%

Draw

29%

70%

Vissel Kobe

31%

68%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Al Nassr at 39% confidence.

AI explanation: Al Nassr to win: Al Nassr averages 1.1 goals scored and 0.3 conceded recently (home boost applied); Vissel Kobe averages 1.7 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Al NassrRecent form (last 8/8)Vissel Kobe
5-3-0Record (W-D-L)5-2-1
1.3Goals scored / match1.5
0.5Goals conceded / match0.6
6.1Corners for / match6.9
6.6Corners against / match7.5
11Shots / match13.3
5.3Shots on target / match4.5
12.3Fouls committed / match12.8
1.9Yellow cards / match3.3
5Clean sheets4
40%BTTS rate40%

Home / Away Form Split

Al Nassr (home)Recent form (last 7/7)Vissel Kobe (away)
3-4-0Record (W-D-L)4-1-2
0.9Goals scored / match1.9
0.1Goals conceded / match1.3
6.3Corners for / match7.7
7Corners against / match7.3
10.9Shots / match11.7
4.6Shots on target / match4
15.4Fouls committed / match12.9
2.4Yellow cards / match4.1
6Clean sheets2
10%BTTS rate60%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • F. Muller (FW, Al Nassr)
  • K. Nakamura (FW, Vissel Kobe)
  • S. Nakamura (FW, Vissel Kobe)
  • L. Lopez (FW, Vissel Kobe)
  • O. Dubois (MF, Al Nassr)
  • Y. Fernandez (MF, Al Nassr)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • K. RossiMuscle fatigue
  • S. ParkHamstring strain
  • F. TanakaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

97

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.2

Avg fouls/match

22.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 537%
63%
Bookmaker odds: 3.03+3.6% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.16 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 563%
63%
Bookmaker odds: 1.50

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.16.

bttsHigh risk
Yes43%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 2.52+3.7% edge

Al Nassr scores in 69% of comparable matchups and Vissel Kobe in 63%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 13.540%
60%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.6, just below the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Al Nassr Over 6.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Nassr wins 6.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.5.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 23.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Nassr (11.0/match) and Vissel Kobe (13.3/match) combine for a projected 24.3 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 9.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 9.8 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 24.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.1 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 6.540%
60%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.5 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsMedium risk
F. Muller Over 2.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller averages 2.6 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
K. Nakamura Over 0.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Nakamura averages 1.1 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
F. Muller Over 1.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller commits 1.8 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
K. Nakamura Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Nakamura commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
F. Muller booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

F. Muller has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskMedium risk
K. Nakamura booked33%
66%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Nakamura has been booked in 40% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.