← Back to matches

Egyptian Premier League · 🇪🇬 Egypt · League matchday

Al Ittihad Alexandria vs Al Ahly

Kickoff: Wed 8 Jul, 19:00

Venue: Al Ittihad Alexandria Stadium, Egypt

Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid

Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Al Ittihad Alexandria

49%

51%

Draw

23%

76%

Al Ahly

28%

71%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Al Ittihad Alexandria at 49% confidence.

AI explanation: Al Ittihad Alexandria to win: Al Ittihad Alexandria averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded recently (home boost applied); Al Ahly averages 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Al Ittihad AlexandriaRecent form (last 8/8)Al Ahly
3-3-2Record (W-D-L)2-1-5
1.5Goals scored / match0.8
1.5Goals conceded / match1.8
5.1Corners for / match7.6
6.5Corners against / match7
12.5Shots / match10.6
6.1Shots on target / match4.6
12.1Fouls committed / match13.9
2.5Yellow cards / match1.9
2Clean sheets1
60%BTTS rate50%

Home / Away Form Split

Al Ittihad Alexandria (home)Recent form (last 3/8)Al Ahly (away)
1-2-0Record (W-D-L)3-1-4
1.7Goals scored / match1.3
1Goals conceded / match1.5
5.3Corners for / match6.8
7.7Corners against / match6.5
15Shots / match11.9
6.3Shots on target / match4.8
15.7Fouls committed / match14
3.7Yellow cards / match2.1
0Clean sheets2
100%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

2

Al Ittihad Alexandria wins

1

Draws

1

Al Ahly wins

0

Avg total goals

4

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • K. Hassan (FW, Al Ahly)
  • S. Owusu (MF, Al Ahly)
  • T. Almeida (FW, Al Ittihad)
  • M. Dubois (FW, Al Ittihad)
  • F. Rossi (MF, Al Ittihad)
  • P. Dubois (MF, Al Ittihad)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. JohnsonAnkle knock
  • K. DialloSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • B. HaidaraMuscle fatigue

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

158

Avg yellow cards

3.2

Avg red cards

0.11

Avg fouls/match

19.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 562%
62%
Bookmaker odds: 1.77+5.9% edge

Combined expected goals of 3.23 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 538%
62%
Bookmaker odds: 2.70+0.6% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.23.

bttsLow risk
Yes74%
73%
Bookmaker odds: 1.48+6.5% edge

Al Ittihad Alexandria scores in 85% of comparable matchups and Al Ahly in 74%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.1, just above the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Al Ittihad Alexandria Over 5.551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Ittihad Alexandria wins 5.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.0.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 22.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Al Ittihad Alexandria (12.5/match) and Al Ahly (10.6/match) combine for a projected 23.1 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 10.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 25.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 26.0 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 3.551%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 4.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.2 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsMedium risk
T. Almeida Over 1.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

T. Almeida averages 1.6 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
K. Hassan Over 3.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Hassan averages 3.7 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
T. Almeida Over 0.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

T. Almeida commits 0.8 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
K. Hassan Over 1.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Hassan commits 1.5 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskHigh risk
T. Almeida booked44%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

T. Almeida has been booked in 57% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
K. Hassan booked18%
81%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Hassan has been booked in 20% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.