Africa Cup of Nations · Group stage
Morocco vs South Africa
Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 19:00
Venue: Morocco Stadium, FIFA World Cup
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Morocco
53%
Draw
24%
South Africa
22%
AI explanation: Morocco to win: Morocco averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); South Africa averages 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Morocco wins
0
Draws
2
South Africa wins
0
Avg total goals
2
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- Y. Silva (FW, Morocco)
- A. Mensah (FW, South Africa)
- B. Costa (FW, South Africa)
- M. Lopez (FW, Morocco)
- C. Haidara (FW, South Africa)
- M. Garcia (MF, South Africa)
Injuries / Suspensions
- L. NakamuraMuscle fatigue
- H. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- Y. TanakaKnee injury (assessment pending)
- M. HassanMuscle fatigue
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
159
Avg yellow cards
4.6
Avg red cards
0.16
Avg fouls/match
26.4
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.71 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.71.
Morocco scores in 82% of comparable matchups and South Africa in 63%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 16.5, just below the 16.5 line.
Morocco wins 8.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.0.
Morocco (11.4/match) and South Africa (13.4/match) combine for a projected 24.8 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 9.2 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 25.1 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 7.6 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.6 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
Y. Silva averages 3.4 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
A. Mensah averages 2.0 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
Y. Silva commits 2.0 fouls per match on average.
A. Mensah commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.
Y. Silva has been booked in 60% of recent appearances.
A. Mensah has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, PunterPro, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.