← Back to matches

Africa Cup of Nations · Group stage

Senegal vs Egypt

Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 12:00

Venue: Senegal Stadium, Africa Cup of Nations

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Victor Gomes (South Africa)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Senegal

53%

53%

Draw

22%

77%

Egypt

25%

74%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Senegal at 53% confidence.

AI explanation: Senegal to win: Senegal averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.7 conceded recently (home boost applied); Egypt averages 0.8 scored and 2.8 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

SenegalRecent form (last 8/7)Egypt
0-5-3Record (W-D-L)1-2-4
0.8Goals scored / match0.7
1.4Goals conceded / match2.3
6.3Corners for / match6.1
7.9Corners against / match6.3
12.1Shots / match12.7
5.1Shots on target / match5.4
11.1Fouls committed / match12
2.5Yellow cards / match2.4
1Clean sheets2
60%BTTS rate40%

Home / Away Form Split

Senegal (home)Recent form (last 5/4)Egypt (away)
0-2-3Record (W-D-L)1-0-3
0.8Goals scored / match1
2.2Goals conceded / match3.5
7Corners for / match5.8
9Corners against / match4.8
13.8Shots / match11.8
4Shots on target / match5
11.6Fouls committed / match10
2.2Yellow cards / match2
1Clean sheets1
40%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

  • C. Hassan (FW, Senegal)
  • O. Silva (FW, Senegal)
  • C. Haidara (MF, Senegal)
  • M. Almeida (MF, Egypt)
  • M. Haidara (MF, Egypt)
  • S. Rossi (MF, Senegal)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. HassanKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • T. FernandezAnkle knock

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

125

Avg yellow cards

4.1

Avg red cards

0.2

Avg fouls/match

23.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Over 2 562%
61%
Bookmaker odds: 1.56

Combined expected goals of 3.21 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsMedium risk
Under 2 538%
61%
Bookmaker odds: 2.74+1.7% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.21.

bttsMedium risk
Yes62%
61%
Bookmaker odds: 1.85+7.5% edge

Senegal scores in 86% of comparable matchups and Egypt in 72%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.3, just above the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Senegal Over 5.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Senegal wins 6.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.3.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 24.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

Senegal (12.1/match) and Egypt (12.7/match) combine for a projected 24.8 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 10.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds:

Projected combined shots on target of 10.5 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 22.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

Combined foul rate of 23.1 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.544%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

Team card rates project 5.7 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds:

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
C. Hassan Over 3.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Hassan averages 3.7 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Almeida Over 2.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Almeida averages 2.8 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
C. Hassan Over 1.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Hassan commits 1.9 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
M. Almeida Over 1.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Almeida commits 1.9 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskHigh risk
C. Hassan booked45%
55%
Bookmaker odds:

C. Hassan has been booked in 60% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskLow risk
M. Almeida booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds:

M. Almeida has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.