Nigeria vs Tunisia

Combined expected goals of 2.83 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.83.

Nigeria scores in 78% of comparable matchups and Tunisia in 73%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.6, just below the 12.5 line.

Nigeria wins 6.9 corners per match on average against teams conceding 5.4.

Nigeria (11.9/match) and Tunisia (10.4/match) combine for a projected 22.3 shots.

Projected combined shots on target of 9.0 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

Combined foul rate of 24.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

Team card rates project 8.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

A. Rossi averages 2.1 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

S. Hassan averages 3.6 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

A. Rossi commits 1.9 fouls per match on average.

S. Hassan commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.

A. Rossi has been booked in 40% of recent appearances.

S. Hassan has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.