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CAF Confederation Cup · Knockout round

Young Africans vs USM Alger

Kickoff: Thu 9 Jul, 17:00

Venue: Young Africans Stadium, CAF Confederation Cup

Weather/stadium note: Clear skies, 21°C

Referee: Daniele Orsato (Italy)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Young Africans

38%

61%

Draw

25%

74%

USM Alger

37%

62%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Young Africans at 38% confidence.

AI explanation: Young Africans to win: Young Africans averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded recently (home boost applied); USM Alger averages 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Young AfricansRecent form (last 8/7)USM Alger
4-3-1Record (W-D-L)2-4-1
1.5Goals scored / match1.7
1.5Goals conceded / match1.1
7.1Corners for / match8.3
7.8Corners against / match5.4
11.5Shots / match12
4.9Shots on target / match5.4
12.9Fouls committed / match12.9
2.3Yellow cards / match2.7
1Clean sheets1
80%BTTS rate70%

Home / Away Form Split

Young Africans (home)Recent form (last 3/4)USM Alger (away)
2-1-0Record (W-D-L)1-3-0
1.3Goals scored / match1.8
0.7Goals conceded / match1.5
8Corners for / match5.8
9.3Corners against / match5.8
13.3Shots / match10.3
5.7Shots on target / match5
12Fouls committed / match12.8
1.3Yellow cards / match2.8
1Clean sheets0
70%BTTS rate100%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Young Africans wins

0

Draws

0

USM Alger wins

1

Avg total goals

4

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • P. Muller (FW, USM Alger)
  • K. Tanaka (FW, USM Alger)
  • T. Rossi (FW, USM Alger)
  • O. Nakamura (FW, Young Africans)
  • K. Park (FW, Young Africans)
  • D. Costa (FW, Young Africans)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. SuzukiAnkle knock
  • T. LopezKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • M. MullerKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • K. KimMuscle fatigue

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

90

Avg yellow cards

4.3

Avg red cards

0.14

Avg fouls/match

21.1

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 556%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 1.58

Combined expected goals of 2.95 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 544%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 1.95

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.95.

bttsMedium risk
Yes59%
59%
Bookmaker odds: 1.69+0.3% edge

Young Africans scores in 77% of comparable matchups and USM Alger in 77%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 13.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.3, just above the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Young Africans Over 5.556%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

Young Africans wins 7.1 corners per match on average against teams conceding 5.4.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 23.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

Young Africans (11.5/match) and USM Alger (12.0/match) combine for a projected 23.5 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 9.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 25.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.8 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 5.553%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.1 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
O. Nakamura Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Nakamura averages 1.7 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
P. Muller Over 0.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

P. Muller averages 1.2 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
O. Nakamura Over 1.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Nakamura commits 2.0 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
P. Muller Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

P. Muller commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
O. Nakamura booked74%
73%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Nakamura has been booked in 133% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskMedium risk
P. Muller booked31%
68%
Bookmaker odds: —

P. Muller has been booked in 38% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, PunterPro) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.