CAF Champions League · Knockout round
Esperance de Tunis vs Al Ahly
Kickoff: Sun 5 Jul, 19:00
Venue: Esperance de Tunis Stadium, CAF Champions League
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Esperance de Tunis
51%
Draw
24%
Al Ahly
24%
AI explanation: Esperance de Tunis to win: Esperance de Tunis averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded recently (home boost applied); Al Ahly averages 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Esperance de Tunis wins
2
Draws
0
Al Ahly wins
0
Avg total goals
3
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- K. Hassan (FW, Al Ahly)
- S. Owusu (MF, Al Ahly)
- B. Rossi (FW, Esperance de)
- T. Rossi (MF, Esperance de)
- M. Mensah (FW, Esperance de)
- M. Suzuki (MF, Al Ahly)
Injuries / Suspensions
- M. JohnsonAnkle knock
- K. DialloSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- Y. MensahSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- O. HassanSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- L. TanakaMuscle fatigue
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
87
Avg yellow cards
3.3
Avg red cards
0.17
Avg fouls/match
22.5
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.72 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.72.
Esperance de Tunis scores in 81% of comparable matchups and Al Ahly in 65%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.8, just below the 14.5 line.
Esperance de Tunis wins 7.4 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.0.
Esperance de Tunis (15.8/match) and Al Ahly (10.6/match) combine for a projected 26.4 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 11.2 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 25.7 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 4.5 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.3 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
B. Rossi averages 3.7 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
K. Hassan averages 3.7 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
B. Rossi commits 2.1 fouls per match on average.
K. Hassan commits 1.5 fouls per match on average.
B. Rossi has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
K. Hassan has been booked in 20% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.