Conference League · Knockout round
Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
Kickoff: Sun 5 Jul, 20:00
Venue: Aston Villa Stadium, England
Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h
Referee: Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Aston Villa
39%
Draw
25%
Newcastle United
36%
AI explanation: Aston Villa to win: Aston Villa averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); Newcastle United averages 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Aston Villa wins
0
Draws
0
Newcastle United wins
2
Avg total goals
3
BTTS rate
0%
Key Player Impact
- Y. Almeida (FW, Newcastle United)
- D. Diallo (FW, Newcastle United)
- F. Haidara (FW, Aston Villa)
- B. Johnson (FW, Newcastle United)
- K. Lopez (MF, Newcastle United)
- D. Rossi (MF, Aston Villa)
Injuries / Suspensions
- D. SilvaKnee injury (assessment pending)
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
159
Avg yellow cards
4.6
Avg red cards
0.16
Avg fouls/match
26.4
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.83 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.83.
Aston Villa scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Newcastle United in 75%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.3, just above the 13.5 line.
Aston Villa wins 6.9 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.8.
Aston Villa (14.0/match) and Newcastle United (9.6/match) combine for a projected 23.6 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 9.8 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 22.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 6.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.6 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
F. Haidara averages 1.8 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
Y. Almeida averages 2.8 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.
F. Haidara commits 1.5 fouls per match on average.
Y. Almeida commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.
F. Haidara has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
Y. Almeida has been booked in 43% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.