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Conference League · Knockout round

Fiorentina vs Athletic Bilbao

Kickoff: Wed 8 Jul, 19:00

Venue: Fiorentina Stadium, Italy

Weather/stadium note: Windy, 12°C

Referee: Istvan Kovacs (Romania)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Fiorentina

33%

66%

Draw

27%

72%

Athletic Bilbao

39%

60%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Athletic Bilbao at 39% confidence.

AI explanation: Athletic Bilbao to win: Fiorentina averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded recently (home boost applied); Athletic Bilbao averages 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

FiorentinaRecent form (last 4/8)Athletic Bilbao
1-2-1Record (W-D-L)3-3-2
0.8Goals scored / match1.4
1.3Goals conceded / match1.1
0Corners for / match6.5
0Corners against / match7
0Shots / match11.6
0Shots on target / match4.8
0Fouls committed / match14.3
0Yellow cards / match2.1
2Clean sheets1
30%BTTS rate60%

Home / Away Form Split

Fiorentina (home)Recent form (last 2/8)Athletic Bilbao (away)
0-2-0Record (W-D-L)2-2-4
0.5Goals scored / match0.9
0.5Goals conceded / match1.4
0Corners for / match8.3
0Corners against / match7.3
0Shots / match11.8
0Shots on target / match4.8
0Fouls committed / match15.1
0Yellow cards / match3.1
1Clean sheets0
50%BTTS rate50%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Fiorentina wins

1

Draws

0

Athletic Bilbao wins

0

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • K. Muller (FW, Fiorentina)
  • B. Muller (MF, Fiorentina)
  • O. Hassan (MF, Fiorentina)
  • A. Haidara (MF, Athletic Bilbao)
  • B. Tanaka (FW, Athletic Bilbao)
  • T. Costa (FW, Fiorentina)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. DialloMuscle fatigue
  • Y. JohnsonKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • D. NakamuraMuscle fatigue
  • K. GarciaKnee injury (assessment pending)
  • M. ParkHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

87

Avg yellow cards

3.3

Avg red cards

0.17

Avg fouls/match

22.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 544%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 1.92

Combined expected goals of 2.44 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 556%
56%
Bookmaker odds: 1.93+4.2% edge

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.44.

bttsHigh risk
Yes50%
50%
Bookmaker odds: 1.95

Fiorentina scores in 69% of comparable matchups and Athletic Bilbao in 72%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 13.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.2, just above the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Fiorentina Over 6.556%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

Fiorentina wins 7.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.0.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 22.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Fiorentina (11.8/match) and Athletic Bilbao (11.6/match) combine for a projected 23.4 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 8.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 9.4 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 26.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 26.7 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 3.555%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 4.2 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.3 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsMedium risk
K. Muller Over 3.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Muller averages 3.6 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
A. Haidara Over 2.552%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

A. Haidara averages 3.1 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
K. Muller Over 1.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Muller commits 2.0 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
A. Haidara Over 0.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

A. Haidara commits 1.2 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskHigh risk
K. Muller booked55%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

K. Muller has been booked in 80% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskMedium risk
A. Haidara booked31%
68%
Bookmaker odds: —

A. Haidara has been booked in 38% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.