Europa League · Knockout round
Villarreal vs Atalanta
Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 12:00
Venue: Villarreal Stadium, Spain
Weather/stadium note: Windy, 12°C
Referee: Walter Lopez (Guatemala)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Villarreal
46%
Draw
23%
Atalanta
30%
AI explanation: Villarreal to win: Villarreal averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); Atalanta averages 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Villarreal wins
0
Draws
1
Atalanta wins
1
Avg total goals
2.5
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- K. Dubois (FW, Villarreal)
- K. Fernandez (FW, Atalanta)
- O. Owusu (FW, Villarreal)
- B. Almeida (MF, Atalanta)
- M. Lopez (MF, Villarreal)
- K. Fernandez (MF, Villarreal)
Injuries / Suspensions
- L. CostaHamstring strain
- A. JohnsonSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- S. SilvaAnkle knock
- M. NakamuraSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- C. KimKnee injury (assessment pending)
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
117
Avg yellow cards
4.1
Avg red cards
0.12
Avg fouls/match
21.3
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 3.18 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.18.
Villarreal scores in 83% of comparable matchups and Atalanta in 75%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.8, just below the 13.5 line.
Villarreal wins 6.8 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.5.
Villarreal (13.4/match) and Atalanta (13.4/match) combine for a projected 26.8 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 8.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 27.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 4.8 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
K. Dubois averages 3.2 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
K. Fernandez averages 3.3 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.
K. Dubois commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.
K. Fernandez commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.
K. Dubois has been booked in 133% of recent appearances.
K. Fernandez has been booked in 75% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.