Europa League · Knockout round
Atalanta vs AS Roma
Kickoff: Wed 8 Jul, 17:00
Venue: Atalanta Stadium, Italy
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Facundo Tello (Argentina)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Atalanta
43%
Draw
22%
AS Roma
34%
AI explanation: Atalanta to win: Atalanta averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded recently (home boost applied); AS Roma averages 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Atalanta wins
1
Draws
0
AS Roma wins
1
Avg total goals
4
BTTS rate
50%
Key Player Impact
- K. Fernandez (FW, Atalanta)
- S. Diallo (FW, AS Roma)
- S. Owusu (FW, AS Roma)
- M. Hassan (MF, AS Roma)
- B. Almeida (MF, Atalanta)
- M. Haidara (MF, AS Roma)
Injuries / Suspensions
- B. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- C. KimKnee injury (assessment pending)
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
158
Avg yellow cards
3.2
Avg red cards
0.11
Avg fouls/match
19.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 3.54 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.54.
Atalanta scores in 85% of comparable matchups and AS Roma in 81%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.9, just below the 12.5 line.
Atalanta wins 6.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 5.5.
Atalanta (13.4/match) and AS Roma (13.4/match) combine for a projected 26.8 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 9.2 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 24.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 3.4 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 3.2 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
K. Fernandez averages 3.3 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.
S. Diallo averages 1.9 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
K. Fernandez commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.
S. Diallo commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.
K. Fernandez has been booked in 75% of recent appearances.
S. Diallo has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.