Europa League · Knockout round
AS Roma vs Villarreal
Kickoff: Sun 5 Jul, 15:00
Venue: AS Roma Stadium, Italy
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Victor Gomes (South Africa)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
AS Roma
40%
Draw
25%
Villarreal
34%
AI explanation: AS Roma to win: AS Roma averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded recently (home boost applied); Villarreal averages 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded away from home.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
1
AS Roma wins
0
Draws
1
Villarreal wins
0
Avg total goals
4
BTTS rate
100%
Key Player Impact
- K. Dubois (FW, Villarreal)
- S. Diallo (FW, AS Roma)
- S. Owusu (FW, AS Roma)
- M. Hassan (MF, AS Roma)
- O. Owusu (FW, Villarreal)
- M. Lopez (MF, Villarreal)
Injuries / Suspensions
- L. CostaHamstring strain
- A. JohnsonSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- S. SilvaAnkle knock
- M. NakamuraSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- B. KimSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
125
Avg yellow cards
4.1
Avg red cards
0.2
Avg fouls/match
23.7
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.83 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.83.
AS Roma scores in 77% of comparable matchups and Villarreal in 74%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.9, just below the 12.5 line.
AS Roma wins 6.5 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.9.
AS Roma (13.4/match) and Villarreal (13.4/match) combine for a projected 26.8 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 9.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 24.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 6.1 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
S. Diallo averages 1.9 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
K. Dubois averages 3.2 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.
S. Diallo commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.
K. Dubois commits 1.7 fouls per match on average.
S. Diallo has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.
K. Dubois has been booked in 133% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.