Europa League · Knockout round
Liverpool vs Lyon
Kickoff: Sun 28 Jun, 20:00
Venue: Liverpool Stadium, England
Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid
Referee: Walter Lopez (Guatemala)
Win / Draw / Loss Probability
Liverpool
42%
Draw
29%
Lyon
30%
AI explanation: Liverpool to win: Liverpool averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded recently (home boost applied); Lyon averages 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded away from home; head-to-head history (2 matches) was blended in.
Team Comparison — Recent Form
Home / Away Form Split
Head-to-Head
Matches played
2
Liverpool wins
0
Draws
1
Lyon wins
1
Avg total goals
0.5
BTTS rate
0%
Key Player Impact
- D. Johnson (FW, Liverpool)
- C. Johnson (FW, Lyon)
- F. Costa (FW, Lyon)
- T. Mensah (MF, Liverpool)
- Y. Owusu (MF, Liverpool)
- K. Mensah (FW, Liverpool)
Injuries / Suspensions
- M. DuboisAnkle knock
- S. TanakaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
- L. GarciaMuscle fatigue
- O. MullerAnkle knock
Referee Tendency
Matches officiated
117
Avg yellow cards
4.1
Avg red cards
0.12
Avg fouls/match
21.3
Side Market Predictions
Combined expected goals of 2.25 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.
Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.25.
Liverpool scores in 71% of comparable matchups and Lyon in 63%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.
Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.6, just below the 13.5 line.
Liverpool wins 7.0 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.9.
Liverpool (13.1/match) and Lyon (12.0/match) combine for a projected 25.1 shots.
Projected combined shots on target of 10.0 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.
Combined foul rate of 25.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.
Team card rates project 7.1 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.
Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.
D. Johnson averages 2.2 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.
C. Johnson averages 1.1 shots per match over the last 8 appearances.
D. Johnson commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.
C. Johnson commits 1.2 fouls per match on average.
D. Johnson has been booked in 40% of recent appearances.
C. Johnson has been booked in 25% of recent appearances.
Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.