Paris Saint-Germain vs Marseille

Combined expected goals of 1.76 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 1.76.

Paris Saint-Germain scores in 61% of comparable matchups and Marseille in 56%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 16.3, just above the 15.5 line.

Paris Saint-Germain wins 7.9 corners per match on average against teams conceding 6.0.

Paris Saint-Germain (13.3/match) and Marseille (9.3/match) combine for a projected 22.6 shots.

Projected combined shots on target of 8.3 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

Combined foul rate of 27.2 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

Team card rates project 7.2 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.2 cards/match.

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

S. Tanaka averages 2.4 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

M. Owusu averages 3.4 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

S. Tanaka commits 1.3 fouls per match on average.

M. Owusu commits 2.4 fouls per match on average.

S. Tanaka has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

M. Owusu has been booked in 67% of recent appearances.