Bundesliga · 🇩🇪 Germany · League matchday

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin

Kickoff: Sat 27 Jun, 15:00

Venue: RB Leipzig Stadium, Germany

Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C

Referee: Ismail Elfath (United States)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

RB Leipzig

35%

65%

Draw

25%

74%

Union Berlin

40%

59%

Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Union Berlin at 40% confidence.

AI explanation: Union Berlin to win: RB Leipzig averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded recently (home boost applied); Union Berlin averages 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

RB LeipzigRecent form (last 7/8)Union Berlin

3-1-3Record (W-D-L)3-3-2

1.6Goals scored / match1.1

1.4Goals conceded / match0.9

6.6Corners for / match5.3

9Corners against / match7.8

11.3Shots / match13.1

4Shots on target / match4.6

11.6Fouls committed / match13.3

2.7Yellow cards / match1.4

2Clean sheets4

40%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

RB Leipzig (home)Recent form (last 2/8)Union Berlin (away)

0-0-2Record (W-D-L)1-2-5

0.5Goals scored / match1.3

2.5Goals conceded / match1.9

9.5Corners for / match5.6

7Corners against / match5.3

12.5Shots / match12.3

5.5Shots on target / match5.5

11.5Fouls committed / match11.1

2.5Yellow cards / match1.4

0Clean sheets0

50%BTTS rate80%

Head-to-Head

No recent head-to-head meetings recorded in the dataset.

Key Player Impact

M. Almeida (FW, RB Leipzig)
A. Costa (FW, Union Berlin)
H. Park (MF, RB Leipzig)
C. Rossi (MF, RB Leipzig)
K. Park (MF, RB Leipzig)
K. Fernandez (FW, RB Leipzig)

Injuries / Suspensions

A. RossiSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
B. MensahMuscle fatigue
M. GarciaAnkle knock
L. HassanSuspended: accumulated yellow cards

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

100

Avg yellow cards

5.1

Avg red cards

0.08

Avg fouls/match

19.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk

Over 2 555%

55%

Bookmaker odds: 1.60

Combined expected goals of 2.89 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk

Under 2 545%

55%

Bookmaker odds: 2.07

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.89.

bttsMedium risk

Yes58%

58%

Bookmaker odds: 1.51

RB Leipzig scores in 75% of comparable matchups and Union Berlin in 78%, blended with a 50% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk

Over 13.558%

57%

Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.3, just above the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk

RB Leipzig Over 6.554%

54%

Bookmaker odds: —

RB Leipzig wins 6.6 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.8.

total_shotsMedium risk

Over 23.559%

59%

Bookmaker odds: —

RB Leipzig (11.3/match) and Union Berlin (13.1/match) combine for a projected 24.4 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk

Over 8.541%

59%

Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 8.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk

Over 24.548%

52%

Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 24.9 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk

Over 5.549%

51%

Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 6.0 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 5.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk

Yes5%

93%

Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk

M. Almeida Over 1.552%

52%

Bookmaker odds: —

M. Almeida averages 2.1 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk

A. Costa Over 0.543%

56%

Bookmaker odds: —

A. Costa averages 0.7 shots per match over the last 3 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk

M. Almeida Over 1.548%

52%

Bookmaker odds: —

M. Almeida commits 1.9 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk

A. Costa Over 0.541%

59%

Bookmaker odds: —

A. Costa commits 0.6 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk

M. Almeida booked28%

71%

Bookmaker odds: —

M. Almeida has been booked in 33% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskMedium risk

A. Costa booked63%

63%

Bookmaker odds: —

A. Costa has been booked in 100% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, OddsHub, BetEdge) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.