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Premier League · 🏴 England · League matchday

Liverpool vs Newcastle United

Kickoff: Tue 30 Jun, 12:00

Venue: Liverpool Stadium, England

Weather/stadium note: Overcast, 15°C

Referee: Ismail Elfath (United States)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Liverpool

30%

69%

Draw

26%

73%

Newcastle United

44%

56%
High riskPredicted score range: 0-2 total goals. Model lean: Newcastle United at 44% confidence.

AI explanation: Newcastle United to win: Liverpool averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded recently (home boost applied); Newcastle United averages 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

LiverpoolRecent form (last 8/8)Newcastle United
1-3-4Record (W-D-L)5-1-2
0.6Goals scored / match2
1.6Goals conceded / match0.8
7Corners for / match5.6
5.8Corners against / match8.8
13.1Shots / match9.6
6Shots on target / match5.4
13.8Fouls committed / match11.5
2.6Yellow cards / match3
2Clean sheets5
30%BTTS rate30%

Home / Away Form Split

Liverpool (home)Recent form (last 8/8)Newcastle United (away)
3-2-3Record (W-D-L)2-2-4
2Goals scored / match0.9
1.1Goals conceded / match1
6.4Corners for / match4.6
5.9Corners against / match6.6
13.3Shots / match11.6
4.3Shots on target / match4.5
12.3Fouls committed / match13.8
3.1Yellow cards / match2.9
3Clean sheets3
50%BTTS rate30%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Liverpool wins

1

Draws

0

Newcastle United wins

0

Avg total goals

5

BTTS rate

0%

Key Player Impact

  • D. Johnson (FW, Liverpool)
  • Y. Almeida (FW, Newcastle United)
  • D. Diallo (FW, Newcastle United)
  • B. Johnson (FW, Newcastle United)
  • K. Lopez (MF, Newcastle United)
  • T. Mensah (MF, Liverpool)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • M. DuboisAnkle knock
  • S. TanakaSuspended: accumulated yellow cards
  • L. GarciaMuscle fatigue
  • D. SilvaKnee injury (assessment pending)

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

100

Avg yellow cards

5.1

Avg red cards

0.08

Avg fouls/match

19.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 549%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 2.39+7.5% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.65 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the under.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 1.68

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.65.

bttsHigh risk
Yes53%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 1.76

Liverpool scores in 69% of comparable matchups and Newcastle United in 77%, blended with a 0% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersMedium risk
Over 13.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 13.6, just below the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Liverpool Over 7.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

Liverpool wins 7.0 corners per match on average against teams conceding 8.8.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 22.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Liverpool (13.1/match) and Newcastle United (9.6/match) combine for a projected 22.7 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 10.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 11.4 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 24.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.3 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 7.554%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 8.2 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 5.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
D. Johnson Over 1.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

D. Johnson averages 2.2 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
Y. Almeida Over 2.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida averages 2.8 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
D. Johnson Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

D. Johnson commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
Y. Almeida Over 0.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida commits 1.0 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskMedium risk
D. Johnson booked33%
66%
Bookmaker odds: —

D. Johnson has been booked in 40% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskMedium risk
Y. Almeida booked35%
65%
Bookmaker odds: —

Y. Almeida has been booked in 43% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (OddsHub, BetEdge, PunterPro) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.