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Colombia Categoria Primera A · 🇨🇴 Colombia · League matchday

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe

Kickoff: Mon 29 Jun, 20:00

Venue: Atletico Nacional Stadium, Colombia

Weather/stadium note: Light rain, 17°C, wind 14km/h

Referee: Wilton Sampaio (Brazil)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Atletico Nacional

39%

61%

Draw

21%

78%

Independiente Santa Fe

39%

60%
Medium riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Independiente Santa Fe at 39% confidence.

AI explanation: Independiente Santa Fe to win: Atletico Nacional averages 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); Independiente Santa Fe averages 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Atletico NacionalRecent form (last 8/8)Independiente Santa Fe
1-4-3Record (W-D-L)2-4-2
1.8Goals scored / match2
2.5Goals conceded / match1.9
4.6Corners for / match7.3
7.9Corners against / match5.9
13.1Shots / match11.3
6.6Shots on target / match4
13.9Fouls committed / match11.1
2.8Yellow cards / match1.4
0Clean sheets2
90%BTTS rate80%

Home / Away Form Split

Atletico Nacional (home)Recent form (last 5/5)Independiente Santa Fe (away)
1-3-1Record (W-D-L)0-4-1
1.6Goals scored / match1.2
1.6Goals conceded / match1.6
5.4Corners for / match8.6
7.4Corners against / match5.4
13.6Shots / match12.2
7.4Shots on target / match3.4
14.8Fouls committed / match12.2
2.8Yellow cards / match1.8
0Clean sheets1
80%BTTS rate80%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Atletico Nacional wins

0

Draws

1

Independiente Santa Fe wins

0

Avg total goals

2

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • O. Lopez (FW, Atletico Nacional)
  • K. Garcia (MF, Atletico Nacional)
  • M. Lopez (MF, Independiente Santa)
  • M. Tanaka (MF, Atletico Nacional)
  • M. Fernandez (MF, Independiente Santa)
  • P. Lopez (MF, Independiente Santa)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • K. FernandezMuscle fatigue
  • K. JohnsonMuscle fatigue
  • K. TanakaHamstring strain
  • M. AlmeidaHamstring strain
  • K. FernandezMuscle fatigue
  • S. HassanAnkle knock
  • Y. LopezHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

96

Avg yellow cards

4.4

Avg red cards

0.08

Avg fouls/match

24.5

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsLow risk
Over 2 573%
72%
Bookmaker odds: 1.24

Combined expected goals of 3.81 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsLow risk
Under 2 527%
72%
Bookmaker odds: 2.81

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 3.81.

bttsLow risk
Yes72%
72%
Bookmaker odds: 1.42+2.0% edge

Atletico Nacional scores in 85% of comparable matchups and Independiente Santa Fe in 85%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 12.547%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 12.9, just below the 12.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Atletico Nacional Over 4.556%
55%
Bookmaker odds: —

Atletico Nacional wins 4.6 corners per match on average against teams conceding 5.9.

total_shotsMedium risk
Over 23.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Atletico Nacional (13.1/match) and Independiente Santa Fe (11.3/match) combine for a projected 24.4 shots.

shots_on_targetMedium risk
Over 10.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.6 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsHigh risk
Over 24.550%
50%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 25.0 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsHigh risk
Over 4.556%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 5.3 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.4 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes8%
91%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
O. Lopez Over 1.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Lopez averages 2.3 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.

player_shotsHigh risk
M. Lopez Over 2.548%
52%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Lopez averages 2.9 shots per match over the last 4 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
O. Lopez Over 1.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Lopez commits 2.3 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsMedium risk
M. Lopez Over 1.559%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Lopez commits 2.4 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
O. Lopez booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

O. Lopez has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskHigh risk
M. Lopez booked53%
53%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Lopez has been booked in 75% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (PunterPro, BetEdge, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.