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Brazil Serie A · 🇧🇷 Brazil · League matchday

Sao Paulo vs Flamengo

Kickoff: Wed 1 Jul, 12:00

Venue: Sao Paulo Stadium, Copa Sudamericana

Weather/stadium note: Warm, 27°C, humid

Referee: Victor Gomes (South Africa)

Win / Draw / Loss Probability

Sao Paulo

50%

50%

Draw

25%

74%

Flamengo

25%

74%
High riskPredicted score range: 3+ total goals. Model lean: Sao Paulo at 50% confidence.

AI explanation: Sao Paulo to win: Sao Paulo averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded recently (home boost applied); Flamengo averages 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded away from home.

Team Comparison — Recent Form

Sao PauloRecent form (last 8/8)Flamengo
2-5-1Record (W-D-L)1-3-4
1.6Goals scored / match0.9
1Goals conceded / match1.5
6.3Corners for / match8.6
5.9Corners against / match7.6
13.8Shots / match10
4.8Shots on target / match5.9
13.8Fouls committed / match13.8
2.8Yellow cards / match2
2Clean sheets2
60%BTTS rate50%

Home / Away Form Split

Sao Paulo (home)Recent form (last 7/7)Flamengo (away)
2-2-3Record (W-D-L)3-1-3
1.4Goals scored / match1.3
1.3Goals conceded / match1.4
5Corners for / match8
7.6Corners against / match7.9
15.4Shots / match11
4.9Shots on target / match5.7
11.4Fouls committed / match13
2.4Yellow cards / match1.9
2Clean sheets2
40%BTTS rate40%

Head-to-Head

Matches played

1

Sao Paulo wins

1

Draws

0

Flamengo wins

0

Avg total goals

4

BTTS rate

100%

Key Player Impact

  • L. Diallo (FW, Sao Paulo)
  • M. Mensah (MF, Flamengo)
  • S. Suzuki (FW, Flamengo)
  • B. Garcia (MF, Sao Paulo)
  • H. Lopez (FW, Sao Paulo)
  • B. Tanaka (MF, Sao Paulo)

Injuries / Suspensions

  • T. OwusuHamstring strain
  • L. SilvaAnkle knock
  • A. DuboisHamstring strain

Referee Tendency

Matches officiated

125

Avg yellow cards

4.1

Avg red cards

0.2

Avg fouls/match

23.7

Side Market Predictions

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Over 2 551%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 2.09+3.4% edge

Combined expected goals of 2.73 from both teams' recent scoring/conceding rates puts the total goals line at 2.5 in favour of the over.

over_under_goalsHigh risk
Under 2 549%
51%
Bookmaker odds: 1.77

Inverse of the over 2.5 calculation based on combined expected goals of 2.73.

bttsHigh risk
Yes54%
53%
Bookmaker odds: 1.82

Sao Paulo scores in 81% of comparable matchups and Flamengo in 66%, blended with a 100% BTTS rate in head-to-head meetings.

total_cornersHigh risk
Over 13.554%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Average combined corner count from both teams' recent matches projects to 14.2, just above the 13.5 line.

team_cornersHigh risk
Sao Paulo Over 6.549%
51%
Bookmaker odds: —

Sao Paulo wins 6.3 corners per match on average against teams conceding 7.6.

total_shotsHigh risk
Over 23.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

Sao Paulo (13.8/match) and Flamengo (10.0/match) combine for a projected 23.8 shots.

shots_on_targetHigh risk
Over 10.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

Projected combined shots on target of 10.7 based on recent shot accuracy from both sides.

total_foulsMedium risk
Over 27.541%
59%
Bookmaker odds: —

Combined foul rate of 27.6 per match from both teams' recent disciplinary record.

yellow_cardsMedium risk
Over 5.542%
58%
Bookmaker odds: —

Team card rates project 5.6 yellow cards, adjusted for a referee averaging 4.1 cards/match.

red_card_chanceLow risk
Yes5%
93%
Bookmaker odds: —

Low-frequency event modelled from each team's red-card rate and the assigned referee's history; red cards remain rare even for high-foul teams.

player_shotsHigh risk
L. Diallo Over 1.543%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

L. Diallo averages 1.7 shots per match over the last 5 appearances.

player_shotsMedium risk
M. Mensah Over 2.539%
61%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Mensah averages 2.5 shots per match over the last 7 appearances.

player_foulsHigh risk
L. Diallo Over 0.557%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

L. Diallo commits 1.3 fouls per match on average.

player_foulsHigh risk
M. Mensah Over 1.546%
54%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Mensah commits 1.8 fouls per match on average.

player_card_riskLow risk
L. Diallo booked3%
95%
Bookmaker odds: —

L. Diallo has been booked in 0% of recent appearances.

player_card_riskHigh risk
M. Mensah booked44%
56%
Bookmaker odds: —

M. Mensah has been booked in 57% of recent appearances.

Bookmaker odds shown are sourced from mock data (BetEdge, PunterPro, OddsHub) for demonstration. Connect a real odds feed via src/lib/api.